with an article about one independent analyst’s critique of ARK Invest’s Tesla robotaxi and stock forecast. I was triggered by some wild assumptions in that critique, so. However, there was also a comment under Carolyn’s article that I think covers things that aren’t discussed or acknowledged enough.
Waiting for a ride: People regard their time as super-precious and having to either wait for a ride or the complexity of pre-scheduling a ride just don’t fly in real life. The robotaxis will not be where the rider wants to start so they have to come to the rider after hailing. Uber gives us some visibility into this and it can take 20 minutes sometimes; 3 minutes other times, but that waste of time and unpredictablity of time is a killer.
Overall, though, these extensions of our homes are also beyond transportation and storage. They’re about identity for many people, and they are one of the top purchases and “bonuses of being an adult” in people’s lives. There’s evidence enough from very rich people. Among other things, they typically buy numerous fancy cars. They don’t need cars at all — they can be chauffeured everywhere even without having to wait.
But what about people who are more sensitive to cash pricing than time spent? Naturally, that’s where you get people riding buses and subways. But this is a more common issue and choice in cities, dense places where low-density travel is very costly and challenging. I don’t see people jumping from the cars of suburbs to robotaxis if robotaxis get a little cheaper than normal taxis.