The transition in cars has begun. The future of light vehicles is electric; in time, perhaps autonomous . Today, there are about 5 million electric vehicles on the road globally, less than 0.5% of the 1.2 billion light vehicle fleet. That will change as EVs become competitive without subsidies in the 2020s, building an ever-rising share of the global car fleet that itself is set to grow by 50%.
But the disruption won’t be quick, and the rise of the EV won’t be linear. What suits the automakers and consumer preference will all affect the pace of penetration. Linda Giesecke, Research Director, Macro Oils, points to unexpected trends unfolding in the big five car markets that will account for 90% of EV sales.First, the US which will be home to almost a quarter of EVs by 2040. The Tesla Model 3 led to EV sales jumping by 80% in 2018. There are now 1 million EVs in the market, just 0.
Second, China, now the world's biggest EV market. Sales almost doubled in 2018 to 1 million units, against the trend – overall car sales fell 4% to 24 million units as consumer finances dried up. EV sales should be buoyant again this year ahead of subsidy cuts in 2020. We expect China's EV stock to reach over 90 million units by 2040, 20% of China's total car fleet.
Third, India, where two-wheelers are the hot segment. The EV stock is minuscule today and reaches just 13 million in 2040. Sales of motor bikes and scooters in contrast are booming, up 19% in 2018 as India’s youth and rural dwellers take to the road. One in seven Indians now owns a two-wheeler, more than own cars. The car fleet, too, has much growth potential as living standards improve. We expect fuel demand from the two combined to grow by 0.4 million b/d, over 50%, through 2025.