Energy minister Gwede Mantashe’s proposed revision of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is an admission of failure brimming with wishful thinking, energy policy and investment specialist Professor Anton Eberhard hasIt outlines the electricity capacity set to come online between 2024 and 2030, and considers several scenarios for building or procuring additional power between 2031 and 2050.
Based on the forecasts in the IRP 2023, South Africa can expect at least another four years of load-shedding. This was the “admission of failure” to solve South Africa’s energy crisis and end load-shedding that Eberhard referred to. Eberhard added that the document failed to fulfil its stated purpose of ensuring electricity security while minimising environmental impacts and the cost of supply. “It advocates delaying the closure of old coal power stations, working around minimum emission standards, and provides dodgy conclusions on a least-cost power system without detailing its input assumptions,” he said.The reference case is the cheapest path with a total system cost of R
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