In early 2029, Earth will likely lock into breaching key warming threshold, scientists calculate

Steam rises from the AES Indiana Petersburg Generating Station, Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023, in Petersburg, Ind. In a little more than five years sometime in early 2029 the world will likely be unable to stay below the internationally agreed temperature limit for global warming if it continues to burn fossil fuels at its current rate, a new study says.

“It’s not that the fight against climate change will be lost after six years, but I think probably if we’re not already on a strong downward trajectory, it’ll be too late to fight for that 1.5 degree limit,” said study lead author Robin Lamboll, an Imperial College of London climate scientist.gave a budget of 500 billion metric tons pointed to a mid 2032 date for locking in 1.5 degrees, Lamboll said.

People should not misinterpret running out of the budget for 1.5 degrees as the only time left to stop global warming, the authors said. Their study said the carbon budget with a 50% chance to keep warming below 2 degrees Celsius is 1220 billion metric tons, which is about 30 years.

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