The OPEC member has seen its production and exports damaged by years of international sanctions, but has nevertheless increased its production over the last year and is suspected of smuggling barrels onto the market.
Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz when shipping crude oil outside of the Gulf, explained Campanella. Experts recall previous oil shocks, such as the OPEC embargo against Israel’s allies in the midst of the Yom Kippur War 50 years ago, and then in the wake of the Iranian revolution in 1979.
The war “seriously threatens the regional natural gas market and could impact Europe’s LNG supply as winter approaches,” warned Innes.
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