U.S. EIA Projects Global Energy Consumption Will Outpace Efficiency Gains In Most Cases

emissions will increase by 2050 in a number of IEO2023 cases as global population growth and higher living standards push growth in energy consumption beyond advances in energy efficiency.

In all IEO2023 cases, global energy consumption increases, with the fastest growth in the residential and industrial sectors. Global consumption of liquid fuels increases through 2050, and industrial applications, such as chemical production, account for the fastest growth in liquid fuels consumption. Economic growth and increased disposable income increase demand for transportation in all IEO2023 cases.

Across IEO2023 cases, global electric-power generating capacity increases by a range of 50% to 100%, and electricity generation increases by 30% to 76% by 2050, depending on the IEO2023 case. Zero-carbon technologies account for most of the growth in both global capacity and generation. Electricity generation from renewables and nuclear could provide as much as two-thirds of global electricity generation by 2050, according to the projections.

Energy trade of fossil fuels will continue to evolve as emerging economies demand more energy and the world continues to adapt to current geopolitical events. In nearly all IEO2023 cases, energy production from zero-carbon technologies grows faster than from fossil fuels, but that dynamic varies from region to region. The Middle East and North America increase natural gas production and exports to meet growing demand, and Western Europe and Asia remain natural gas importers in all IEO2023 cases.

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