Flood protection based on historical records is flawed—we need a risk model fit for climate change, say researchers

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Despite countries pouring billions of dollars into 'protecting' communities, flood-related disasters are becoming more frequent and are projected to become even more severe as the climate crisis worsens.

New Zealand has little in the way of national-level guidance on managing flood risk. Despite this, survey responses suggest flood risk professionals are aware of the issue. They agree residual flood risk is increasing, mainly due to climate change and ongoing development in flood-prone areas currently designated as"protected."

Several respondents noted that changing risk management practice is difficult, given the existing institutional framework. This includes the"build more levees" approach to flood planning. As a result, housing and other developments are continuing in risky places. And to keep development costs down, infrastructure is not being systematically upgraded.We expect the New Zealand experience reflects similar trends elsewhere. Practitioners are aware of the growing threat of residual risk and would like more power to manage it. But there is a lack of urgency and resources to upgrade infrastructure.

 

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