Grains of truth
Food insecurity is exacerbated by water shortages. Agriculture accounts for about 70 per cent of freshwater consumption globally, although in regions such as Asia it can be higher. Already two billion people lack access to clean, safe drinking water. By 2030, demand for freshwater is forecast to exceed supply by 40 per cent. Areas that once took water for granted are coming to terms with shortages.
Of all the climate risks, flooding is most straightforward to analyze. But that does not mean it is priced in. Recently published research suggested that U.S.by between US$121 billion and US$237 billion. Once cyclones and chronic risks such as drought, heat and sea-level rises are factored in, San Francisco emerges as one of the areas most economically exposed, according to a Moody’s. Boise, Idaho, and Nashville, Tenn., are among the safest. Such forecasts provide an insight into likely migration patterns within the U.S. in the second half of this century. The consequences for the Bay Area’s sky-high real estate values and its tax base will be significant.
The wealthier the region, the better the chance of adequate defences. S&P Global Inc. recently upgraded Miami bonds to AA on this basis, even though the city expects the sea level to rise by up to 53 centimetres by 2070. “Water scarcity and the situation that has crystallized over the last couple of years are pushing the deployment of these technologies,” said José Díaz-Caneja, chief executive of Spanish conglomerate Acciona SA’s water business.
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