For tens of millions of workers in China’s massive export sector, the surprising 14.8 per cent year-on-year growth in shipments in March is nothing but a figure when – as they see it – empty containers have been piling up at ports for months, and small manufacturers have struggled to stay afloat.
According to data from China Customs, the outbound shipment value of EVs, lithium-ion batteries and solar batteries surged by 54.8 per cent in US dollar terms during the first quarter, year on year, reaching US$38.5 billion. And their share among all of China’s exports increased to 4.7 per cent in the quarter, from 3 per cent a year earlier.
“The current inventory is too large and cannot be sold out even in the next three years – from raw materials to the final products – everyone in the industry knows that,” said Xu, who is based in Jiangsu province north of Shanghai.
But concerns over future demand from Europe in the short term remain, due to a shortage of labour installing the modules. But the price of lithium carbonate has plummeted by nearly 70 per cent since November, and the phasing out of a national subsidy scheme for electric-car buyers this year has triggered a fierce price war among major EV makers, with hefty discounts.
Meanwhile, the governments of all major developed economies are seeking to change the status quo through protective legislation and subsidies.In June of last year, Washington’s Uyghur Forced Labour Prevention Act effectively blocked American imports of all products wholly or partially sourced from Xinjiang, the western region where China has been accused of committing human rights abuses against Uyghur Muslims and other minorities – allegations that Beijing has repeatedly denied.
“The theme of the year in the energy transition is deglobalisation,” he said. “Every region is focused on spurring the development of supply chains for key materials and technologies for the energy transition.”