Over 80% of predicted heat-related deaths in the Middle East and North Africa by the end of the century could be prevented if global warming is limited to 2°C, according to a modeling study published inUnder high-emissions scenarios, approximately 123 people per 100,000 in MENA are predicted to die annually from heat-related causes by the end of the century—approximately 60-fold greater than current figures and much higher than predictions under similar scenarios worldwide.
However, if global warming is instead limited to 2°C, over 80% of these deaths could be avoided, highlighting the urgent need for better adaption policies and a switch to renewable technologies.MENA is one of the most climate-vulnerable regions of the world, with maximum temperatures predicted to rise to almost 50°C by the end of the century, potentially making some areas unlivable.
In the current study, an international team of researchers, including from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine , modeled current and future trends in heat-related mortality in 19 countries in the MENA region. In their analyses, the team considered variations in the levels of potential greenhouse gas emissions over time and different socioeconomic scenarios.
Under high-emissions scenarios 5-8.5), most of the MENA region will experience substantial levels of warming by the 2060s.will rise from approximately two per 100,000 currently to 123 per 100,000 by the period between 2081 and 2100. Although current heat-related deaths in MENA are relatively low compared to other regions , this rise is expected to be much higher than other regions of the world under similar climate change scenarios.