“We’re not proposing that we switch entirely to using hybrid cars.”Because EVs require more raw materials and different manufacturing procedures they’re more carbon-intensive to make than gasoline-powered cars, hybrids and plug-in hybrids, according to Argonne National Laboratory, which created themodel to measure all aspects of a vehicle’s greenhouse gas emissions. Still, most of the pollution associated with them occurs from on-road use over many years. And on that basis, the EV wins.
Argonne’s estimates are based on the current average U.S. electric grid, but in the years ahead they’ll keep getting better for EVs and less so for hybrids, said Jarod Kelly, a principal analyst at Argonne, near Chicago. So Toyota’s argument about the broader carbon-reduction impact that can happen with a dramatic increase in hybrid sales, though true now, may not hold up for much longer. It also doesn’t speed a societal shift away from oil.
Based on his research, Phadke is convinced that not only will the grid keep getting cleaner but that over time tight supplies of battery materials will ease and prices for EVs will drop. “In terms of long-term affordability, battery prices, in the long run, are likely to come down,” he said. Still, he doesn’t know exactly when.Amol Phadke, staff scientist, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory