German economy weathering hard winter but risks loom

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The surge in energy prices that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine has pushed Germany to the brink of a recession, but the economic pain appears to be less severe than originally feared.

German statistics authority Destatis will publish GDP figures for the last three months of 2022 at 10:00 am on Friday, with analysts expecting any contraction to remain limited after the unexpected growth of 0.4 percent in the third quarter.

"In the areas where production is particularly energy intensive, we saw very sharp declines last year," said Michael Groemling, head of macroeconomic research at the IW Cologne institute. But efforts to build up gas reserves in preparation for the winter have allowed Germany to skirt acute shortages. Costs were nonetheless markedly higher than in recent years, a"burdensome factor" for industry, he said.Some analysts warn the reprieve may prove temporary given significant risks that lie ahead.

Such a rapid increase in consumer prices -- a pace not seen in decades -- would not leave Europe's largest economy"unaffected", Holtemoeller said. Germany risks"permanently losing out" if it does not find a way to supply industry with affordable energy, she said.

 

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