Still, is the rationalization claiming the supposed peak in ‘conventional oil’ is relevant valid? Typically, peak oilers are referring to oil sands, shale oil, and natural gas liquids as unconventional arguing that the former two are more difficult and expensive to produce and the latter has a lower energy content than crude oil and should not be included in production data.
But also, if a large portion of the liquids being produced were somehow different than what the oil industry uses to meet demand, then the fact that world liquids consumption has grown by 15 mb/d since 2005 without creating an economic catastrophe suggests that the differentiation of liquid fuels is not relevant. Indeed, as the figure below shows, oil inventories were growing before the pandemic, not collapsing.
The entire history of the peak oil supply arguments is littered with ponderous statements of difficulties facing the oil industry: depletion rates have soared, discoveries are not keeping pace with production, Middle Eastern oil reserves are suspect, the energy return on energy investment is declining, and so forth. All while ignoring that production has not peaked and declined and the price volatility has been almost completely the result of political shut-ins of supply.
This should provide a salient lesson for the demand side as well. Despite the drumbeat of news about soaring electric vehicle sales, plummeting renewable costs, public concerns about climate change and international agreements to address it, the impact on fossil fuel usages, and especially oil, has been minimal.
The Biden war on energy has hurt all Americans And only benefits China and India will continue to pollute unabated.
It’s a way to manipulate price if a commodity we have infinite supply off relative to demand