This winter, we're expecting a body of frigid air to affect the weather in New England. But to understand whether it's going to make it very cold here, or bring lots of snow, you need to understand some climate science.
Yes, in 2014 the polar vortex nearly became a joke term in mainstream media – reporters standing outside, smacking pieces of frozen pizza, eggs, steak or frozen T-shirts against flagpoles, the ground or themselves. But the scientific reality of what was occurring then, and what happens regularly to the polar vortex in the modern winter, is anything but funny.
What happens when warmth invades the Arctic isn’t just a melting of glacial icecaps. The polar vortex, in response to warming temperatures through a deep layer of the atmosphere, breaks into pieces, unable to hold together a pool of consistent cold. As the vortex breaks into pieces, each of those smaller pools of cold air becomes unstable, wobbling and dipping south – farther south than an intact and whole polar vortex normally would.
Again, some who are directly under the pummeling snow zone may question whether winter is really fading, but all those not under it see the evidence in the form of warmer-than-normal temperatures and rain or mixed precipitation events with below-normal snowfall.Climate change and forecasting The problem is this: back then, you were largely dealing with a standard winter pattern featuring an intact polar vortex that was fairly stable. To introduce a splintering, wobbling, fractured polar vortex and flood even the Arctic atmosphere with warmth just isn’t something we have many analogs for.