Predicting oil demand amid climate change? Good luck

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Recent moves by government leaders to spur consumers to buy more electric vehicles, both...

to, “near-term development gains at the expense of the environment.”

“The incredible thing is a lot of these commitments were made during the worst economic downturn we’ve seen since WWII when it wasn’t clear the economy was going to come roaring back,” said Jim Burkhard. “The push for electrification has clearly gained a lot of momentum.” Most are somewhere in the middle, but none of these forecasts account for governments actually hitting their goals of net-zero emissions by mid-century — which scientists say is necessary to avoid cataclysmic climate change.

Achieving net zero carbon emissions would require, among other things, nearly all the cars on the road to be electric, decimating oil markets. In the United States, for instance,But oil companies are projecting a much slower roll out. The energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie is predicting electric vehicles will only make up 60 percent of new car sales in 2050.

 

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