Credit rating agency Moody's said the low Rhine water levels will increase costs for chemicals companies, particularly those with production facilities on the upper Rhine, and could lead to production cuts.
To the south, Switzerland is releasing 245,000 cubic metres of its oil reserves to plug supply constraints caused by the low Rhine levels."It might not be a mistake to assume at this point that the low water will weigh on GDP by a quarter to half a percentage point," said Jens-Oliver Niklasch, an economist at LBBW.
Stefan Schneider, an economist at Deutsche Bank, expects the German economy will fall into a mild recession from the third quarter and that overall growth in 2022 would be 1.2%.The extent of the drop in Rhine water level is monitored at a chokepoint at Kaub in southwestern Germany, where it reached 48 cm on Wednesday compared with the 1.5 metres needed to carry fully loaded vessels.
Some companies have adapted since the 2018 drought. In an emailed statement, BASF said it had implemented an early warning system for low water levels and is also chartering and developing ships suitable for shallower waters.
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