Under the government's latest"reasonable worst-case scenario", Britain could face an electricity capacity shortfall totalling about a sixth of peak demand, even after emergency coal plants have been fired up, according to people familiar with the government's planning.
While Britain doesn't envisage such shortfalls under its base case, the analysis lays bare the difficult winter potentially in store for Ms Liz Truss or Mr Rishi Sunak when one of themIf they materialise, the power cuts would come even as Britons face up to average annual energy bills possibly rising above £4,200 in January from just under £2,000 currently, stoking already soaring inflation.
Britain's main fall-back option was to restore its biggest natural gas storage site, Rough. Owner Centrica says its initial return to service this winter would equate to 10 LNG cargoes, not really enough to make a significant difference. The nation will also face stiff international competition for cargoes of liquefied natural gas.
Norway said on Monday it's looking at ways to limit power exports in winter to prevent domestic shortages. Britain has higher power prices than Norway and relies on imports, so any limitations would raise costs further and may force National Grid to utilise its strategic reserve of coal, Aurora Energy Research said.There is also a looming threat from the unavailability of Electricite de France SA's nuclear fleet, National Grid said.