Can EV Adoption Scale Like Cell Phones Did?

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Transitioning to a clean energy future requires phasing out conventional vehicles and phasing in electric cars at a rapid pace.

I’ve driven an EV for the past five years. I know the advantages: the convenience of home charging, the low operating costs, and the zippy acceleration.

Before answering that question, consider how the market for cell phones looked in the late 1980s. In 1987, the big news was a handheld cell phone that weighed just over a pound and could hold a call even as you transitioned between cell towers. In today’s dollars, that cell phone cost $2,000 up front, $125 a month for service, and more than $1 a minute per call.

What combined to accelerate the adoption of cell phones in the 1990s? First, building the right infrastructure. In the 1980s, U.S. cell phone companies made the mistake of investing in limited capacity and expensive analog cell service, which drove up costs. But in the early 1990s, the industry began shifting to digital cell infrastructure, which dramatically expanded both capacity and reliability.

And, despite the persistent concerns about the upfront costs of electric vehicles, as battery costs continue to fall and EV manufacturing grows, the sticker price of an EV will reach cost-parity with conventional vehicles. Some project we’ll reach that point by 2025. At that point, the lifetime costs of an EV will be well below those of conventional cars — making them a sensible economic choice for more and more drivers.

 

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If Tesla bought each ICE as a trade in then demanufactured that car, it would double the market uptake and permanently decrease their numbers

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