An electric vehicle for sale at a car dealership in California. Picture: DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG
For the past six months, the US joined Europe and China — collectively the three largest car markets — in moving beyond the 5% tipping point. If the US follows the trend established by 18 countries that came before it, a quarter of new car sales could be electric by the end of 2025. That would be a year or two ahead of most major forecasts.Most successful new technologies — electricity, television, mobile phones, the internet, even LED light bulbs — follow an S-shaped adoption curve.
Thus the adoption curve followed by South Korea starting in 2021 ends up looking a lot like the one taken by China in 2018, which is similar to Norway after its first 5% quarter in 2013. The next major car markets approaching the tipping point this year include Canada, Australia and Spain. The analysis above is for vehicles that run on batteries only. Some countries, primarily in Europe, were quicker to adopt plug-in hybrids, which have smaller batteries backed by a gasoline-powered engine.
Behind every country that crossed an EV tipping point is a programme of federal incentives and pollution standards. In the US, the Biden administration last year issued an executive order calling for EVs to make up half of new vehicles by 2030 . According to the tipping-point analysis, it should beat that goal with several years to spare. Continued growth also depends on the ability of carmakers and their suppliers to increase production fast enough.