IEA slashes gas growth forecast following record prices

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Extremely high prices for gas have sharply eroded the International Energy Agency’s forecast for demand growth, and threaten the role of gas in the transition.

The growth in demand for natural gas out to 2025 will be only half as much as previously anticipated due to extreme prices exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the International Energy Agency said, casting doubts on the prospects for the fuel through the energy transition.cuts to Russian flows to EuropeStrong gas prices have been great for exporters but are to blame for the IEA’s reduced growth forecasts.

The revised forecast is less than half the 370bcm growth seen in the past five years, and well short of the exceptional jump in demand of almost 175 bcm in 2021 alone.The drastically changed forecasts raise questions about the strength of future demand for LNG, of which Australia is one of the biggest exporters in the world.

“Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine is seriously disrupting gas markets that were already showing signs of tightness,” said IEA director of energy markets and security Keisuke Sadamori.“We are now seeing inevitable price spikes as countries around the world compete for LNG shipments, but the most sustainable response to today’s global energy crisis is stronger efforts and policies to use energy more efficiently and to accelerate clean energy transitions.

 

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