While keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees is likely a bust, there is growing confidence among thethat holding it to less than 2 degrees is not only achievable but can be done without tanking living standards.
Under that scenario, according to the scientists, emissions would need to fall by 50 per cent within less than eight years – costing more than $US100 for every tonne of carbon released.“The main takeaway is that the outlook for a 2-degree trajectory is a much more positive one than has been previously assessed,” said Frank Jotzo, a lead author on the report and professor at the ANU’s Crawford School of Public Policy.
On keeping emissions below 1.5 degrees, Professor Jotzo said: “That’s not happening. It would require immediate deep cuts in emissions in all sectors and countries and that’s just not on the horizon. What we’re looking at is 1.5 degrees overshoot.” “Things like reforestation, agricultural management practices for greater carbon retention in soils, but also technological carbon dioxide removal through direct air capture, chemical process to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or using minerals that have the natural property of sequestering carbon dioxide and accelerate that process.”
While scientists continue to call for urgent action, Professor Jotzo said the broader context of this year’s report showed how far the world had come.“Two degrees used to be considered so difficult as to be nearly impossible. Now that statement goes to 1.5 degrees,” he said.
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