In the best case scenario the world will see another 700,000 bpd out of Iran this year, and perhaps 300,000 bpd from Venezuela. America’s shale frackers might grow as much as 1 million bpd. But that’s far from guaranteed, says Nuttall. Given shortages of labor, materials and advanced rigs, “shale will be lucky to replace its production.”
The U.K. and U.S. have imposed import bans on Russian oil. Many companies have followed suit. But Russia still has willing buyers. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in March that Europe still would need to get some portion of its pre-war diet of 2.4 million bpd from Russia. “Europe’s supply of energy for heating, mobility, electricity and industry currently cannot be secured in any other way,” said Scholz.
India is a nation facing that reality, as it imports 85% of petroleum needs. India maintained strong relations with the Soviet Union during the Cold War both for a reliable oil supply as well as a necessary balance to China. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has abstained from voting on all UN resolutions condemning Putin’s aggression. India this week reportedly contracted for new shipments totalling 8 million barrels.
He likes other independent Canadian operators like Cenovus Energy, Pipestone Energy and Baytex Energy. The world’s biggest oil companies hold little interest, in large part because they have been hobbled “by the decision to let their core oil and gas production gradually decline while they reinvest in renewables.”
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