Estimates of the carbon cycle—vital to predicting climate change—are incorrect, researchers show

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Estimates of the carbon cycle—vital to predicting climatechange—are incorrect, researchers show NatureComms

is critical to accurately monitor and predict the amount of climate-changing gasses in the atmosphere. This finding has the potential to change predictions for climate change, though it is unclear at this juncture if the mismatch will result in more or less carbon dioxide being accounted for in the environment.

To understand how carbon affects the ecosystems on Earth, it's important to know exactly where all the carbon is going. This process, called carbon accounting, says how much carbon is going where, how much is in each of Earth's carbon pools of the oceans, atmosphere, land, and living things. This carbon dioxide that's coming in and going out is essential for balancing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, which contributes to climate change and storing carbon long-term.

What Jian and Steele, along with the rest of the team, found is that by using the gross primary productivity of's accepted number of 120 petagrams—each petagram is a billion metric tons—the amount of carbon coming out through soil respiration should be in the neighborhood of 65 petagrams. The next step for the research is to determine which part of the global carbon cycling model is being under or overestimated.

 

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