AUCKLAND, New Zealand — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken many long-held Western assumptions about the foundations of peace in Europe. Among other things, it has renewed policy makers’ focus on energy dependence as a key strategic issue.
Given the pressure of the current Ukraine crisis, such shortsightedness would be understandable. Western governments must close the energy gap created by stopping Russian fossil-fuel imports, while minimizing the damage to national economies. For now, they have the public with them. But if energy costs CL00, +0.64% NG00, -0.83% rise too high, or shortages become too disruptive, the resulting economic havoc could erode public support.
The 2021 Production Gap Report highlighted the disconnect between current fossil-fuel production plans and climate pledges. Under current policies, global warming is on track to reach a catastrophic 2.7° Celsius this century. We need to be rapidly closing down wells and mines and shrinking production, not adding more capacity.
As the IPCC report rightly points out, the consequences of climate change most quickly destabilize places where tensions are already high and government structures are already weakened or corrupt.