Natural gas prices hit a record Thursday for a second day in a row as restrictions on oil and gas were increasingly treated as a possibility on the eighth day of the war — whether through Western sanctions or Russian retaliation. That could mean even more pain to people's wallets: Energy prices have been high for months because of low supplies, driving up the cost of everything from utility bills to groceries as businesses pass along their costs to customers.
Yet many of the measures will take months or, in the case of new pipelines and terminals, years. The long-term answer is rapidly building out renewable sources such as wind and solar. But for now, Europe is reliant on gas to heat homes, generate electricity and supply industries like fertilizer producers.
The EU’s executive commission is set to unveil steps next week that governments can take. The Paris-based International Energy Agency said Thursday that Russian gas imports could be cut by one-third this year through steps including letting existing gas contracts with Russia expire, finding new supplies from partners such as Norway and Azerbaijan, imposing minimum storage requirements, maximizing use of remaining nuclear plants and offering cash support for vulnerable electricity customers.
Weaning Europe completely off Russian gas by next winter's heating season — if that becomes necessary — would be possible but painful, involving extra costs and possibly forced conservation, according to analysts at the Bruegel research institute in Brussels. Given record LNG shipments are already coming from places like the U.S., a total loss of Russian gas would leave Europe 10% to 15% short and facing potentially painful steps to reduce gas use, which would hit businesses first.
“Cargoes have already been rejected by European refiners in the market, because people are afraid sanctions might be coming, and so they don’t want to be caught with some cargo they can’t resell,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, research professor and managing director of the Climate Policy Lab at Tufts University.
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