than previously expected. Any disruption to the supply of gas from Russia could cause prices to surge again.”
As they prepared their plans for 2022, policy makers at the ECB had been counting on a decline in energy prices—as demand for winter heating fuels eased toward the end of this month—to help reverse the rise in the eurozone’s inflation rate and bring it back to its 2% target by the end of this year. But economic growth is also likely to turn out weaker than the ECB had expected. JPMorgan said it now expects the eurozone economy to stagnate in the three months through March, having previously forecast an annualized increase in gross domestic product of 1%. It also lowered its growth forecasts for subsequent quarters.winding down its bond-buying program
Alternatively, the ECB can leave its stimulus measures in place and tolerate a period of very high inflation to cushion the economy against the fallout from Russia’s war. But that might persuade eurozone workers that inflation is set to remain high for an indefinite period, and inspire them to ask for significantly higher wage rises than they have secured over recent decades. Big wage rises might prompt another round of price increases as businesses seek to cover their higher costs.
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