by deliberately squeezing gas exports. A military conflict over Ukraine may choke supply even further, spelling some painful months, or even years, for Europe.
it might now shelve authorization of Nord Stream-2, a pipeline that would have boosted gas imports from Russia.If Russia invades Ukraine and enters a military conflict with NATO powers, natural gas prices could well double from their already high levels, says Massimo Di Odoardo, vice president of global gas research at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. “There’s no telling how high [prices] will go and there’s very little Europe could do to prevent the increases.
In the short term, Europe has few options to shift its energy mix away from Russian natural gas. Between low reserves, long timelines for new projects, and the E.U.’s green energy ambitions, it would be all but impossible for Europe to significantly step up its own natural gas production. The bloc could partially re-activate recently decommissioned coal plants—undermining its emissions goals with the dirtier fossil fuel—andplants.