*Not enough information to determine impact of new pledges relative to previous pledgesThe good news, and perhaps proof of concept, is that the Glasgow summit has already succeeded in nudging some governments to raise their levels of climate ambition. COP26 was long planned as the edition at which countries would make new emissions-reduction pledges, beyond those in the landmark Paris Agreement at COP21 in 2015.
A global energy crunch, which has sent prices skyrocketing, has contributed to worries about turbulence that transitioning off fossil fuels could cause, despite arguably making the case for greater reliance on cleaner sources instead. Many poor countries, already frustrated by lack of help as they face climate change’s worst consequences, are unable to participate as robustly in the conference as richer ones, partly due to poor access to COVID-19 vaccines.
That most prominently involves Article 6 of the agreement, which is supposed to allow for the creation of an international carbon market, in which countries that exceed their emissions-reduction commitments can sell credits to countries failing to meet theirs. In theory, it’s meant to encourage ambition by rewarding overachievers; the danger is that if the market is poorly constructed, it could give high emitters too easy a fix.
Insiders familiar with the negotiations say that may require some assistance to developing countries that lack resources to meet higher reporting standards. But there are also governments that have been resistant because they’re unaccustomed to outside scrutiny of their data and operations, with China viewed as a particular obstacle. “The most valuable thing would be for China to show some flexibility on the transparency issue,” Prof.
To come close to matching outside expectations, participants will also need to find ways to build momentum through alliances and side deals, and by generally embracing peer pressure as much as possible. Leading into COP26, Mr. Wilkinson and German State Secretary Jochen Flasbarth were tasked by the host British government with spearheading an effort to make good on a pledge by rich countries to provide US$100-billion annually in climate finance to poorer ones, which was supposed to happen by 2020.
Then there are opportunities to try to build momentum around specific policy approaches to reducing emissions, rather than just the broad targets.