FILE - People walk through floodwater caused by heavy rain while waiting for transportation on Sheikh Zayed Road highway in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, April 18, 2024. A new report says climate change played a role in the floods. FILE - An abandoned vehicle stands in floodwater caused by heavy rain with the Burj Khalifa, the world’s tallest building, seen in the background, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, April 18, 2024. A new report says climate change played a role in the floods.
One of the key tools in WWA’s more than 60 past reports has been creating computer simulations that compare an actual weather event to a fictional world without climate change, but in the Dubai case there wasn’t enough data for those simulations to make such a calculation. But analysis of decades of past observations, the other main tool they use, showed the 10% to 40% bump in rainfall amounts.
Because rainfall amounts varied over the region and the lack of data, the report couldn’t put a figure on if climate change had increased the likelihood of downpours like this in Dubai, but Otto estimated that it’s probably about three times more likely to happen now than in pre-industrial times.had anything to do with the amount of rain or its likelihood. Many scientists dispute cloud seeding’s effectiveness in general. Even so, the clouds in the storm system were not seeded, the report said.
While the authors use well-established techniques and this is what scientists expect with climate change, when there’s a disagreement between computer simulations and observations, conclusions shouldn’t be drawn, said University of Victoria, Canada, climate scientist Andrew Weaver, who wasn’t part of the research.
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