emissions already in the atmosphere will shrink global GDP in 2050 by about US$38 trillion, or almost a fifth, no matter how aggressively humanity cuts carbon pollution, researchers said Wednesday.
Annual investment needed to cap global warming below 2 °C – the cornerstone goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement – is a small fraction of the damages that would be avoided, the researchers found. "Our calculations are super relevant" to such cost-benefit analyses, said co-author Leonie Wenz, also a researcher at PIK.
"Countries least responsible for climate change are predicted to suffer income loss that is 60 percent greater than the higher-income countries and 40 percent greater than higher-emission countries," said senior PIK scientist Anders Levermann.Rich countries will not be spared either: Germany and the United States are forecast to see income shrivel by 11 percent by 2050, and France by 13 percent.
Wenz and her colleagues found that unavoidable damage would slash the global economy's GPD by 17 percent in 2050, compared to a scenario with no additional climate impacts after 2020."They are likely to be an underestimate of the costs of climate change impacts," Bob Ward, policy director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in London, commented to AFP ahead of the study's publication.
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