planned oil pipeline spinoff is a bet that it can supply more Canadian crude to U.S. Gulf of Mexico refiners, but the venture faces stiff competition and will carry high debt when it starts up.
South Bow also faces larger Canadian rival Enbridge, which is pursuing its own U.S. Gulf strategy and owns in Texas the largest U.S. oil storage and export terminal. Shippers have reserved 94 per cent of Keystone under long-term contract, leaving remaining capacity for the spot market. U.S. Gulf operational refining capacity, however, is set for a net 2 per cent decline by 2025 as the closure of LyondellBasell’s 263,776 bpd Houston refinery next year eliminates more output than incremental expansions at other facilities will add, Stevenson said.
U.S. midstream competitors typically carry less than four times debt to EBITDA, said Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, which owns TC shares.
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