ChatGPT & DALL-E generated anoramic image of an electric semi truck covered in circuitry rolling along a highway beside a railroad where a long freight train is belching diesel smoke
It’s a bit rich to brag about how low carbon your transportation mode is if your primary load is high carbon, and about 33% of North American rail loads are coal and oil. For the oil part, they are a higher carbon mode than pipelines, so once again, a bit rich. This is part of a pivot away from corporate governance historical intent since the 1970s, with GE’s Jack Welch playing a significant role, one which is only starting to unwind in the US. Elsewhere in transportation, Boeing is suffering badly in large part because four Welch acolytes have been Boeing CEOs in recent decades.
The blueprint talks about mode-shifting as a primary strategy. That means respecting and pushing toward a merit order of least to highest emissions transportation, one where people live more densely and can walk, bike, and take transit for most things that they do. It means freight moves by water before rail and rail before roads.
Naturally Biden is blaming China, but as with everything else, China for decades maintained consistent and long-lasting industrial policies aligned with where the ball will be, while the US and other countries chose to follow the trajectory of the ball, pretending that the myopic stock market would lead to the best economic and industrial outcomes.
Further, a full third of US rail is shipping coal and oil, as noted. 1.1 trillion ton kilometers of freight is disappearing from US rails in the coming years, bringing it below road freight without any other levers being pulled. That’s also revenue that’s disappearing from rail company’s ledgers, once again making investments in basic track maintenance unlikely, never mind electrification investments.Electric trucks sip at electricity. It takes about 1.
There are seven US states with lower carbon electricity than California, which means that’s another seven states where electric trucking is lower carbon or a lot lower carbon than California, which is close to the breakeven point.
But that cost difference. Surely that will save rail? Well, batteries are the most expensive component of a truck, and battery prices are plummeting. They were under $100 per kWh of capacity at the beginning of 2024 and CATL has announced its fourth-quarter price point will be $56 per kWh. At 1.1 kWh per kilometer, a 1,000-kilometer range truck would require about a 1.1 MWh battery. In 2022, that might have cost $175,000. In 2023, $150,000. At the beginning of 2024, $95,000.
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