Fossil-fuel demand likely to peak before 2030 as renewable uptake rises, IEA says

Global demand for fossil fuels is likely to peak before the end of the decade, with mounting shocks to the global energy system caused by geopolitical uncertainty hastening the move to renewable energy, according to the International Energy Agency.

The IEA said this is the first time it has forecast that demand for all three major fossil-fuel sources would peak before 2030, with much of the shift hastened by energy shocks such as the war in Ukraine and the current conflict in the Middle East. It cited the latter as an example of why energy systems need to be diversified and strengthened. By 2050, half of Middle Eastern seaborne oil flows are likely to be sent to Asia, up from 40% today, it said.

In particular, the IEA said coal demand is likely to fall sharply within the next few years from a record level in 2022 due to lower coal-based power generation and increased use of electric-arc furnaces in steel production. However, significant steps have been made in terms of the global shift to renewable energy sources, spurred by policies such as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, the IEA said. The agency now expects half of all new cars sold in the U.S. to be electric by 2030–a significant increase from its 2021 report in which it forecast that just 12% of cars would be battery powered by that date.

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