Victoria and South Australia face an increased risk of rolling blackouts this summer, the electricity grid operator has warned, as the return of an El Niño weather pattern brings a hot, dry summer with lower wind output.
In stark contrast to the February report, the risk of shortages in both Victoria and South Australia will now exceed the strictest benchmark this coming summer, forced by higher expectations of periods of low wind coinciding with high demand, more frequent generator breakdowns, and a gas plant closure among other factors.
These schemes and other proposed projects in the pipeline “have the potential to significantly improve the outlook if they progress as projected,” AEMO said. While AEMO modelled keeping some coal-fired power stations, such as Eraring in NSW, for slightly longer, it also warned about the increasing unreliability of older fossil fuel plants, after breakdowns caused havoc on the grid last year and forced the“The reliability of the thermal [coal and gas] generation fleet generally stayed at historically poor levels in 2022-23, and most plant operators have advised that overall plant reliability is unlikely to materially improve,” it says.