The first is that Moscow is winning the energy battle. Russia is undoubtedly a huge energy supplier and the increases in oil and gas prices triggered by its invasion of Ukraine have resulted in an uptick in its energy income for now. But its short-term revenue gain is more than offset by the loss of both trust and markets that it faces for many years to come. Moscow is doing itself long-term harm by alienating the EU, its biggest customer by far and a strategic partner.
Russia was banking on liquefied natural gas as the main way to diversify its exports away from a heavy reliance on Europe. Before its invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s stated aim was to export 120 million to 140 million tonnes of LNG a year by 2035, at least quadruple its current level. This appears a distant prospect without international partners and technologies. A homegrown liquefaction technology has been beset by difficulties and delays.
The third mistaken idea is that today’s energy crisis is a huge setback that will hinder us from tackling climate change. I don’t see it that way. This crisis is a stark reminder of the unsustainability of the current energy system, which is dominated by fossil fuels. We have the chance to make this a historic turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system. And this is already happening.
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