A new study says the intensity and extent of future Australian bushfires is being underestimated.Methods for incorporating heatwave and drought conditions into future fire predictions will be researched.
Bureau of Meteorology senior research scientist Mika Peace and independent study co-author Lachlan McCawTo do this the pair analysed processes that drove some of the devastating Black Summer bushfires around the country in 2019–20.Australia replaced the FFDI and a Grass Fire Index for its bushfire warning system in 2022, but the FFDI has still been used in long-range climate projections.
"In the same way that we see the jet streams at the top of the atmosphere, which people are often in, if they're in a plane ... we can also get these low-level jets developing near the surface," she said.Other factors included an increased risk of fire-generated thunderstorms, changes to vegetation, and more fuel for fires because of heatwaves and droughts.
"While these metrics often do an admirable job at predicting a range of fire-related risks, they don't tell the whole story," he said. "This includes actions such as fuel management with planned burning, providing good access to reach fires before they become problematic, and better preparing communities for fire.
"I think what it speaks to is we need to not only be well equipped, trained and geared up to respond to more fires and intense fires, but we have to do more in the risk-management space."