A rare positive surprise from Chinese industry and retail has unnerved interest rate and energy markets some more, upping the stakes at this week's major central bank meetings.
Chinese stocks <.CSI300) closed at their highest for the year and have now recaptured 12% of the past year's withering slump since the start of February. Global stocks and U.S. futures started the busy week on a more positive note as a result. With Russia's predictable weekend election result tightening Vladimir Putin's 25-year grip on power, Ukraine's continuing attacks on the country's oil refineries are having an impact on energy markets at the margins too.
There is no hope of a Fed rate cut this week, but their new economic projections may be a wild card - potentially signalling fewer interest rate cuts and a later start to the policy easing than they previously had estimated. The brighter growth and edgier oil and inflation outlook also ups the ante for tomorrow's Bank of Japan decision, where speculation is now rife the BOJ will end its negative interest rate policy following months of second-guessing and after news last week of the highest wage growth in more than 30 years.
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