Colliding forces make Origin fight a turning point for capital markets

Few markets deliver the rough and tumble of a takeover quite like Australia. And the almost $20 billion battle for Origin Energy, now stretching into its 12th month, has drama in spades.

“The brutal reality is, if you look across the energy transitions throughout the world, knitting together customers, renewables, storage, orchestration retail product with the right kind of constructive regulatory environment, the right kinds of transmission support, the right kind of social licence to operate – all of these things are being solved live time,” Perkins tells Chanticleer.

AusSuper clearly disagrees. And it’s the fund’s willingness to declare its views so publicly, and the key reason for its opposition, that makes this such an important moment in the evolution of the super sector’s approach to public markets.Investors and dealmakers have got used to markets taking a relatively short-term view of value.

But what the Origin deal brings into stark relief – through the sheer scale of super funds today, their time horizons, the privileged collection of assets of the company in question and the decades-long thematic of the energy transition – is that big super funds have a very different approach to most other public market investors, very few of whom can contemplate a 40-year view of returns.

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