Steam rises from the AES Indiana Petersburg Generating Station, Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023, in Petersburg, Ind. In a little more than five years – sometime in early 2029 – the world will likely be unable to stay below the internationally agreed temperature limit for global warming if it continues to burn fossil fuels at its current rate, a new study says.
The new study set the carbon budget at 250 billion metric tons. The world is burning a little more than 40 billion metric tons a year , leaving six years left. But that six years started in January 2023, the study said, so that’s now only five years and a couple months away. The biggest change from the 2021 report to this year’s studies is that new research show bigger reductions in— which come from wildfires, sea salt spray, volcanoes and burning fossil fuels — that lead to sooty air that cools the planet a tad, covering up the bigger greenhouse gas effect. As the world cleans up its carbon-emitting emissions it is simultaneously reducing the cooling aerosols too and the study takes that more into account, as do changes to computer simulations, Lamboll said.
People should not misinterpret running out of the budget for 1.5 degrees as the only time left to stop global warming, the authors said. Their study said the carbon budget with a 50% chance to keep warming below 2 degrees Celsius is 1220 billion metric tons, which is about 30 years.
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