Fossil fuel emissions to peak soon, green transition needs to speed up, IEA says

WASHINGTON –While some countries have been burning more fossil fuels such as coal this year in response to natural gas shortages caused by the war in Ukraine, that effect is expected to be short-lived, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday in its annual World Energy Outlook, which forecasts global energy trends to 2050.

One major reason for a peak in emissions is that many countries have responded to soaring prices for fossil fuels this year by embracing wind turbines, solar panels, nuclear power plants, hydrogen fuels, electric vehicles and electric heat pumps. Based on current policies put in place by national governments, global coal use is expected to start declining in the next few years, natural gas demand is likely to hit a plateau by the end of this decade and oil use is projected to level off by the mid-2030s.

Current energy policies put the world on track to reach peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2025 and warm roughly 2.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 compared with pre-industrial levels, the energy agency estimated. That is in line with separate projections released Wednesday by the United Nations, which analysed nations’ stated promises to tackle emissions.

This year, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to rise roughly 1 per cent and approach record highs, in part because of an uptick in coal use in places like Europe as countries scramble to replace lost Russian gas. Still, that is a far smaller increase than some analysts had feared when war in Ukraine first broke out.

As European nations race to reduce their reliance on Russian oil and gas, Russia is likely to face challenges in finding new markets in Asia, particularly for its natural gas, the report said. As a result, Russian fossil fuel exports are unlikely to return to their prewar levels.

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