When people's perception of risk is low and society is polarized, strong policy measures can backfire in the long run.
It's a dynamic we saw play out in real-time throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. As policymakers took measures to slow transmission of the disease, the global perception of risk was very high. But as masks and lockdowns worked to curb the spread of the virus, our perceived risk declined; mandates lifted, individuals opted out, and case numbers rose again, often surpassing earlier surges.
The model shows that, in highly polarized situations, social interactions -- behaviors that reinforce dominant norms -- can lead to a phase shift where an initial state-change can happen quickly, but subsequent transitions become harder."It's a double-edged sword. In one sense, it can accelerate a transition. But at the same time, it can make the threshold for that transition harder to meet," says Perri.
Cities are responsible for 60-70% of energy-related CO2 emissions. As the world is increasingly urbanized, it is crucial to identify cost-effective pathways to decarbonize. Here, we propose a ...