Buried in the recesses of a 2018 report by the Office of Public Works is an eye-catching assessment of the risk posed to Dublin from an extreme flooding event. For Ireland, climate change-induced weather events are more likely to manifest as flooding.
In a high-end risk scenario, in other words a one-in-100 year event, involving a 30 per cent increase in rainfall and a one metre sea level rise, the cost jumps to €2.9 billion and involves 15,500 homes and almost 3,000 business premises being damaged. And remember the OPW’s risk assessment analysis is for Dublin only. Experts say parts of Cork and Limerick and other areas are more at risk and could potentially suffer more damage with big costs for the exchequer.
The heavy rainfall which caused the flooding in Midleton and other parts of east Cork is more than twice as likely to occur at current global temperatures in comparison with pre-industrial times. The EU’s climate change monitoring service Copernicus indicated earlier this month that the global average temperature for the past 12 months – between March 2023 and February 2024 – was the highest on record at 1.56 degrees above pre-industrial levels.